Covid Conspiracies - The Questions That Need Answering (before you're daft enough to believe in them)

Many of us look on in bewilderment at the spate of ridiculous Covid conspiracy theories out there, and spend an inordinate amount of time trying to defend the perceived wisdom.  It's time to get off the back foot and take the challenge to the tinfoil hat brigade.  Before anyone even starts to argue that there's some sort of conspiracy, the following questions need to be answered.

What?

What is this conspiracy?  What is its purpose?  If there is a conspiracy here, then clearly it's quite massive, and has taken a lot of time and effort.  So why would someone do that?  What did we have before that they didn't like which will have disappeared if this conspiracy is successful?  What will we have afterwards that we didn't have before?

If we're really being fed vaccines full of microchips, what exactly are they going to do with that?

How?

How has this been perpetrated on us?  How do you manage to bring the world to a halt, economies to their knees, travel to a standstill?  How do you fill the wards of hospitals with people who are not ill, and statistics full of new cases and deaths which aren't actually happening, without someone being able to very clearly and easily shows that to not be the case?

Who?

This is the biggie.  Who is involved and who is to benefit?  As far as I can tell, if there is a conspiracy, all of the following must be in on it, and with a united purpose.

1. Extremely nasty right wing dictators like Bashar Al-Assad of Syria, and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea
2. Very right wing, nominal 'democracies' like Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil.  Not particularly 'on message' with Covid, and currently playing catch up, but he admits it exists and is dangerous
3. Centre-right democratic leaders like Trump in the US or Johnson in the UK.  Again, not always as 'on message' as you'd like, but spending (for Trump, 'spent') billions, and curtailing freedoms in a way which doesn't sit well with their general political philosophy.  But they're still on board.
4. Centre-left democratic governments like those currently in power in France, Italy and Finland
5. Progressive left wing governments like Jecinda Ardern's in New Zealand.
   
6. Hard left democratic governments like those in Greece
7. Very left wing nominal 'democracies' like Venezuala
8. Extremely nasty left wing dictatorships like North Korea

And then there are the odd ones out like China.  What is that?  A communist, capitalist dictatorship?  And Iran.  A theocracy?

Let's not leave it there.  Look at opposing world views.  Israel's government and Hamas might immediately spring to mind.

What do they all have in common.  They all believe there's a threat to public health from Covid, to the extent that they've brought in unusual and extraordinary measures.  That's right.  The communists agree with the nazis.  The Thatcherites agree with the Corbynistas.  The Israelis agree with the Palestinians.  The religious Islamic leaders agree with the secular west.

Let's not stop with governments, what about the media?  Again, we might look at state controlled media in China, or North Korea.  Or we might look at media owned by capitalist, hyper-rich owners.  Or we might look at 'the mainstream media', which is, apparently, a bad thing.  And completely beholden to the establishment.

And yet this is the media who brought us Watergate, at the time of Nixon.  Who broke the news of secretly smuggling Cruise Missiles into Greenham Common in the time of Thatcher.  Or who railed against the MPs' expenses scandal.  Or who continuously scrutinise Boris Jonson's personal and financial affairs.  A media demonstrably NOT beholden to its leaders.

Outside of that, I need to go local with the UK here.  Any conspiracy, quite aside from the UK government of Boris Johnson's Conservative Party, would have to include the SNP in Scotland, Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick Vallance, Jonathan Van-Tam, all of their subordinates, high-to-middle ranking health professionals under them, high-to-middle ranking civil servants, and thousands of administrators and scientists, not to mention the epidemiologists, virologists, and public health data collectors.

And what about the security services?  Where are the MI5/MI6/KGB defectors (and there are usually a good number) blowing the whistle?

What about the technology which controls our lives.  Apparently this has all been controlled by Bill Gates.  And yet it would also include the cooperation, not only of his old pals at Microsoft, but also his sworn enemies at Apple, needed to get the app on our phones.

So here's the question in short.  Why has this conspiracy happened, how on earth was it perpetrated, and who is responsible who had the power to cover it all up?

Because any conspiracy would require every single one of those nations, those politicians, those public officials, those scientists, those doctors, and those media to be involved, or at least consent to turn a bind eye...

...without a single one of them, anywhere on the planet breaking ranks.  Because none has.

None of those conspiracy theories has come from a country with a different political outlook to most others.  Or a genuine, proven independent reporter.  Or a high-ranking scientists.  Or any of the many tens, if not hundreds of thousands of credible voices which would have been potentially raised throughout the world had this all been a scam.

None of the conspiracies come from data officials in Belgium, or a team of doctors in Bolivia, or civil servants in Chad.

And here's the kicker.  I know that no one can possibly answer the massive, insurmountable weight of evidence I've offered here, but let's suppose they could.

That in itself would in no way prove a conspiracy.  It would only prove that a conspiracy were theoretically possible.  It would prove that it could be planned, perpetrated and hidden, but not that it had ever happened.  It's possible I'm in a conspiracy with Jeremy Corbyn, the manufacturers of Curly Wurly, and the bloke from the Go Compare adverts.  It doesn't mean it's happened.

And despite this lack of evidence, there are people out there prepared to believe conspiracy theories spread by Chuck, a 34 year old posting on FaceBook from his bedroom in his mum's house in West Virginia, who lives on a diet of delivery pizza and Cheerio's, and posts whilst sat in his soiled boxer shorts and t-shirt.

So, before you ever think about mentioning to me that there's any sort of a conspiracy about Covid, be prepared to answer all of the above first.

Why It's Important to Have a Covid Vaccine

When I first opened this blog, I said it was because the space constraints of FaceBook made it difficult to discuss some matters in the detail they require.  The necessity of having a Covid vaccine is one such instance.

It can be a tricky, emotive, and complicated topic, so I'll try to keep this as honest and simple as possible  So the following numbers are purely illustrative.  They're not be taken as accurate, pure science, but as an idea of why vaccination is important.

Firstly, let's look at a virus, any virus.  There's a lot of talk about the 'R' number.  That's just a measurement of how many people a person, on average, will pass the virus on to.  So, if a virus has an R of 1, what does that mean? It means that. if we don't change our behaviour (social distancing, etc.), if 10,000 people have it today, then 10,000 will have it tomorrow, and 10,000 will have it in a week, and 10,000 will have it in 6 months.

Some of the original 10,000 won't have given it to anyone.  Some will have given it to 3 or 4 people.  But, on average, each one person will have infected one other person.

But what if it's a nasty virus and the R number is 3?  That means that each of those people gives it to 3 more.  So now, those 10,000 people become 30,000.  That then becomes 90,000.  That becomes 270,000.  That becomes 810,000.  That becomes 2,430,000.  That becomes 7,7290,000.  That becomes 21,870,000.  And that becomes 65.5 million.  The entire population of the UK infected from a starting point of 10,000 people, in 8 steps.  Of course, it'd never come to that, but that's just to illustrate how fast things can change.

But let's say we could reduce that.  Let's say the R number was reduced to 0.75.  10,000 would become 7,500.  Then 5,625.  Then 4,219.  Then 3,164.  Then 2,373.  Then 1,780.  Then 1,335.  And then 1,001.  That's what we've done with the Coronavirus with lockdown.  We've not got R down to 0.75, but we've got it below 1 by closing the pubs.

So how do vaccines help?  Some say that there's no point in being vaccinated against a virus if it's not 100% effective.  Well, let's say vaccines reduce your chances of getting the virus by 75%.  3 people out of 4 who would have got the virus no longer do.  But 1 out of 4 does.  That means those 10,000 people, instead of passing it on to 30,000 people, will only pass it on to 25% of those.  Which is 7,500.  So the R number has come down from 3 to 0.75, because of the vaccine.  So for a virus with an R of 3, if the vaccine is 75% effective, it reduces the R to 0.75.  Instead of growing by x3, it's shrinking by a quarter.

But what it some people aren't vaccinated?  How many people do we need to be vaccinated to control that virus?  Well, we know that we need enough for the R number to fall below 1.  Remember, an R of 1 means the numbers are stable, above 1 and the numbers with it are growing, below 1 and numbers are shrinking.  We said that the virus has an R of 3.  So  200 people  give it to 600 more people.  If everyone were vaccinated with a jab that's 75% effective they'd only give it to 25% of those 600, so that's 150.  200 becomes 150, that's an R of 0.75.

But let's say a quarter of those 600 weren't vaccinated.  150 would get it from not being vaccinated, and 112 (25%) of those vaccinated would get it, that's a total of 262.  So 200 people pass it on to 262.  So if the virus has an R of 3, and the vaccine is 75% effective, and only 75% of people get jabbed, the R remains above 1.  And if we don't want the virus to spread, we need to keep the pubs shut.

Let's try some more sums.  If 90% are vaccinated, 60 of the 600 would get it because they weren't vaccinated, and 135 who were vaccinated would get it.

60 + 135 = 195.  200 people pass it on to 195.  The R has just dipped below 1.

So we would need 90% of people to be vaccinated to bring the R below 1.  Or alternately, keep some lockdown measures in place.

So that's a theoretical virus.  What about the Coronavirus?

It's very difficult to say with any degree of accuracy where we are with Covid, because we're nor completely sure of the virus's true R number, nor exactly how more infectious the new variants make it, nor exactly how much the vaccines prevent spread.

But we do know that the virus has an R above 1 (a long way above 1).  And we do know the variants increase this.  And we do know vaccines reduce your chances of passing it on.

And we also know that we've only been able to bring the R down to below 1 with some pretty hefty changes to our lives.

And we do know:

• The R number needs to be below 1
• This virus has a natural, unchecked R of way over 1
• There are only 2 ways to bring the R number down (a) lockdown measures, and (b) vaccination
• The more people who are vaccinated, the fewer lockdown measures are needed.
• The fewer people vaccinated, the greater the number of lockdown measures must remain

So if anyone thinks "I'm 25 and healthy, I've almost ZERO chance of getting ill, why should I bother getting vaccinated?" this is your answer.

If you want to go to the pub, or a gig, or on holiday, or visit your family & friends, or go to the shops, or see businesses re-open, or the government getting into greater debt, or return to a normal life, then we need enough people to be vaccinated to keep the R below 1.  If we don't get enough people vaccinated, we'll need to keep some lockdown measures in place.

Put another way, if enough people refuse to be vaccinated, the pubs may remain closed.