It works for me

When discussing the efficacy of various anti-mosquito remedies, quite often someone will suggest one which has been tested and shown not to work, and when this evidence is pointed out to them they'll say "Well, it works for me!"  To be fair, that a compelling point - you get bitten, you try a remedy, you don't get bitten, therefore the remedy worked.  It's very easy to see how powerful that is in any case, and particularly when it's happened to you.

I think it's important to look at this claim.  In the first instance, and indeed almost certainly in every instance, the question should be "Did it work?" And there's no harm asking the question.

Scientific research into mosquito repellents has taken place constantly since the 1950s, and pretty much all suggestions have been tried and tested using accurate experiments and techniques.  The onus is, therefore, on anyone making a claim to others that  "It works for me" to explain why they believe it does, if the scientific evidence shows it doesn't.  You have a stack of science on one side, a few people's experience (possibly our own) on the other, I think it's valid to just pause and ask what might be going on.

Okay, here are the standards expected in statistical research.  Let's star with a binary claim - let's say a typical claim that taking a particular tablet (garlic, Vit.B) repels mosquitos.

A double-blind controlled test is necessary.  This would probably involve three people.  The first person wouldn't have any idea, or opinion.  We'd take 2 (we'll start with 2) people, give one a garlic tablet, and the other a placebo.  The two people involved wouldn't know which was which, nor which was preferred by the person conducting the experiment.  The person who gave them the tablets wouldn't know which was which, just 'Tablet A' and Tablet B'.  If we really want to get serious, we can make it a triple blind test, where the person who looks at the results doesn't know which is which either, they can just say A or B worked best.  Only after everything is completed is the truth revealed.

At each day's end the subject's arms/legs would be studied and photographed, with any bites logged.  The photos would be used to ensure any old bite wasn't counted twice.

For scientific standards of evidence we need to apply a little maths to the results.  The experiment should be completed on 10 separate occasions.  One of the two samples needs to clearly outperform the other at least 9 times out of 10; this could be done over 10 days. .At that point the efficacy of the successful product can be said to have been proven as working on that person (yes, it could then be said it "works for them") with a 95% degree of probability.

That's the maths.  That's what is required in a binary to test to say something works with more than a 95% degree of certainty.

Anything less than 10 separate experiments, and there's not enough data for the test to be statistically valid.  Anything less than 9/10 in favour of one product over the other is not considered to be proven.  We haven't proven to anyone, not even to ourselves, to any accepted standard that it "works for me".  To be clear, unless we've done the above, we've not even proven "it works for me" to ourselves.

Now that would be the basis for an experiment if, and only if, we expected everyone using a suitable repellent to never be bitten, and those without an effective repellent to always be bitten, but we know what's not true.  It'd also true that some people are effectively co0mpletely unattractive to mosquitos, and never get bitten, whilst yet others are very susceptible, or highly susceptible, to bites.  So we'd need to carry that experiment out with ten pairs of people, selected at random, and get the same at least 9 out of 10 times.

If you have no interest in carrying out the above experiments, that's fine.  Frankly, I wouldn't be prepared to do so either, so I've absolutely no criticism of anyone who doesn't fancy it themselves.  But in that case, the question is whether we should be offering "It works for me" as a counter-argument to properly conducted scientific trials.  What we'd doing in that instance is saying "Ignore the masses of evidence from hundreds of correctly controlled tests, and instead listen to my view, which I'm not prepared to test to any accepted standards of accuracy."

Unless we've done the above, we haven't proven to ourselves to the required standard of scientific accuracy that the remedy in question works, even just for us, let alone anyone else.  In that instance, we should not be making that claim to other people.  And we certainly shouldn't be offering it as counter-evidence to properly conducted research.

And finally, let's say we've done all of the above, and it does indeed work for us.  Even at that point, we've proven nothing other than that.  There are some areas where we're a little in the dark with on mosquito repellents, and one of the things we don't know about is why some people attract more bites than others.  We do know that there's quite possibly a genetic dimension to this, and that in turn may affect how different repellents work on you.  However, we do know from other research which repellents work best for most people.

So, returning to our first experiment, if we conduct that, and find garlic or Vit.B works for us, this does not discredit the decades of research on the matter, it just shows we're an exception to the rule, an odd one out, possibly a genetic aberration.

In that instance, we really shouldn't be offering "It works for me".  we should be saying "It works for me, but based on all the available evidence I'm the odd one out and it almost certainly won't work for you, and you should ignore my example - I'm the exception that proves the rule."

The Climate of Skiathos – Month-by-Month

Being a regular user of various Skiathos-related social media groups and platforms, it’s common to see questions asking what the weather is like on the island at a particular time of year.  If you’re reading this, it’s almost certainly because you’ve asked such a question, and have been directed here.

It's important to be clear that no one can guarantee what the weather will be like on Skiathos in advance, but it’s equally true that you can be given a good idea what it will be like, along with some idea of the possibility that it might be different to the average.

The following information is in month order, so just scroll down to the month you’re visiting, and read on.  Please note, if you’re going at the very start, or very end of a month, it’s not a bad idea to read up on what the weather is like in the adjacent month, too.

All figures are averages based on

the 30-year period 1991-2020

Skiathos in January, February, and March

Cool/mild, rather than cold.  The average minimum temperature in January and February is 8°C, rising to 10°C in March, the average maximum is 12°C, rising to 14°C in March with the mean average temperatures being January and February 10°C, March 12.5°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest days of each month can regularly be 18°C in January, 19°C in February, and 22°C in March.  The warmest temperatures recorded in the 30-year period were January 22°C, February 22°C, and March an eye-opening 31°C. The coldest nights are usually around 2-4°C, though it can occasionally be as low as -2°C in January.  Sea temperatures are almost always below 15°C, so too cold for swimming.

Rainfall averages are 80mm in January distributed over an average of 10 days, 70mm in February over 9 days, and 60mm in March over 8 days.  Sunshine hours averages are 3.5 hours per day in January, 5 hours in February, and 6.5 hours in March.  On average, it’s sunny for 37% of daylight hours in January, 48% in February, and 54% in March.  It has been known to snow, and snow quite heavily in January, though most years it doesn’t.  If you visit for a fortnight, you’re almost certain to see some rain, and there’s a reasonable chance the rain could last for a significant portion of your visit.

IN GENERAL - You can visit Skiathos at this time of year, but it won’t be for the weather or the swimming.

Skiathos in April

Very mild.

The average minimum temperature in April is 13°C, the average maximum is 17°C, with the mean average being 15°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest day of the month can regularly be 23°C, whilst the warmest recorded in the 30-year period was 26°C. The coldest nights are usually around 7.5°C, though it can occasionally be as low as 5°C, so you’ll definitely need a jumper and/or coat in the evenings.  Sea temperatures are almost always below 15°C, so it’s still too cold for swimming.

The rainfall average for April is 40mm distributed over 7 days.  The sunshine hours average is 8.5 hours per day.  On average, it’s sunny for 65% of daylight hours. 

IN GENERAL - April’s climate is a small, but steady improvement over the first 3 months of the year, but whilst the odd day may feel like summer, you’re far more likely to experience weather which feels very much like spring.

Skiathos in May

The tourist season for Brits starts in May.  That is to say, the first direct flight to Skiathos from a UK airport, and the first package holidays available from the big travel companies usually depart on or close to 1^st May.

Warm.

NOTE – There is usually a fairly large difference between temperatures at the start of May when compared with the end of the month.  The average minimum temperature in May is 18°C, the average maximum is 22°C, with the mean average being 20°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest day of the month can regularly be 28°C, whilst the warmest recorded in the 30-year period was 31°C. The coldest nights are usually around 12°C, though it can occasionally be as low as 9°C, so a jumper or even coat for the evenings is advised.  Sea temperatures are usually around 18°C, so still too cold for swimming for most, though doable for the more hardy souls, particularly towards the end of the month.

The rainfall average for May is 40mm distributed over 6 days, so not much better than April.  The sunshine hours average is 9.5 hours per day.  On average, it’s sunny for 68% of daylight hours. 

IN GENERAL – May sees a significant step up in temperature over April, but otherwise the average climate across the month is another small, but steady improvement over the previous month, and starting to feel like summer.  May is certainly a time where it’s relatively important to consider whether you’re going towards the start or end of the month, as the averages improve fairly rapidly.  Having said that, you’ll be fairly unluck to have a fully ‘bad week’, and extremely unlucky indeed to have a ‘bad fortnight’ if you go for the first two weeks in May, whilst a visit during the second half of the month won’t be too much different to June.  The end of May is a far safer bet.

Skiathos in June

Warm-to hot.

The average minimum temperature in June is 22°C, the average maximum is 27°C, with the mean average being 24.5°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest day of the month can regularly be 28°C, whilst the warmest recorded in the period was 40°C. The coldest nights are usually around 17°C, though it can occasionally be as low as 14°C, so it’s best to consider taking a light jumper for the evenings, just in case, though you’ll get less use out of it the later in the month you get.  Sea temperatures are usually around 22°C, so quite cool for swimming, though most will find it bearable, particularly towards the end of the month.

The rainfall average for June is 25mm distributed over 4 days, so a big improvement over May.  Sunshine hours average 11 hours per day.  On average, it’s sunny for 73% of daylight hours.  Occasionally you’ll see steady rain in June, but more often it’s a quick, heavy thunderstorm.

IN GENERAL - June sees a significant step up in average temperatures across the month over May, but is otherwise just another small, but steady improvement over the previous month.  It’s drier, and there’s steady improvement in other areas; it’s now unambiguously summer.  There’s not a significant improvement between June and July, so this is the last time of the season when the part of the month you go shows any considerable improvement.  Like May, June is a time where it’s relatively important to consider whether you’re going towards the start or end of the month, as the averages improve fairly rapidly.  The weather at the end of June should be very similar to July and August.

Skiathos in July & August

There’s not a lot of difference between July and August, with the climate being warm-to hot.

The average minimum temperature in July-August is 24°C, the average maximum is 29°C, with the mean average being just over 26.5°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest day of the months can regularly be 33.5°C, whilst the warmest recorded in the 30-year period were 43°C in July and 38°C in August. The coldest nights are usually around 20°C, though it can occasionally be as low as 16-17°C, so a jumper shouldn’t be necessary for the evenings, unless you feel the cold very easily.  Sea temperatures are usually around 25°C, which is the warmest of the year, and good for swimming.

The rainfall average for both July and August is 20-25mm distributed over 2 days per month, so similar to June.  Sunshine hours average is around 12 hours per day.  On average, it’s sunny for around 83% of daylight hours in both months.  The rain, if and when it comes, is usually in the form of very quick, dramatic thunderstorms.  You’ll almost certainly not have a whole day washed out.

IN GENERAL - July and August’s climate is a small step up over June’s average, with only sea temperatures being a significant difference.  This is peak summer.  There’s not a significant improvement between late June and July/August, and whilst some figures take a turn for the worse in September, that’s mainly caused by a dip towards the end of that month.  In short, the climate on Skiathos is very similar from 1^st July through to 31^st August.

Skiathos in September

The climate changes during September, being unapologetically summer at the beginning of the month, but nudging towards autumnal as you near the end.

The average minimum temperature in September is 21°C, the average maximum is 26°C, with the mean average being 23°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest day of the month can regularly be just over 30°C, whilst the warmest recorded in the 30-year period was 36°C. The coldest nights are usually around 15°C, though it can occasionally be as low as 12°C; a light jumper is advised for evenings, especially towards the end of the month.  Sea temperatures hold up well, usually being around 24°C, which is still good for swimming, and not far behind July-August.

The rainfall average for September is 40mm distributed over 5 days per month.  Sunshine hours average is around 9.5 hours per day.  On average, it’s sunny for 76% of daylight hours.  It can rain for extended periods, but whilst you may possibly see most of a week cloudy and rainy towards the end of the month, that’s relatively unusual.

IN GENERAL - September’s climate is a step down from July and August, with only sea temperatures holding up.  Importantly, this deterioration occurs during the month, so whether you’re going during the first or last week or fortnight makes some difference.  Having said that, you’ll be fairly unluck to have a fully ‘bad week’, and extremely unlucky indeed to have a ‘bad fortnight’ if you go for the last two weeks in September, whilst a visit during the first half of the month probably won’t be too much different to July/August.

Skiathos in October

The tourist season for Brits ends after the first week of October.  That is to say, the last direct flight to a UK airport from Skiathos, and the last package holidays available from the big travel companies usually ends on or close to 7^th October.

The climate changes during October, from hanging on to summer at the start of the month, to being unapologetically autumnal towards the end.

The average minimum temperature in October is 17°C, the average maximum is 21°C, with the mean average 19°C.  Those are the averages – the warmest day of the month can regularly be 27°C, whilst the warmest recorded in the 30-year period was 31°C. The coldest nights are usually around 12°C, though it can occasionally be as low as 7°C; a light jumper or coat is advised for evenings, especially towards the end of the month.  Sea temperatures continue to hold up well, usually being around 21°C, which is still just about fine for swimming, especially at the start of the month.

The rainfall average for October is 70mm distributed over 7 days per month.  Sunshine hours average is around 7.5 hours per day.  On average, it’s sunny for 68% of daylight hours.  As with late September, it can rain for extended periods, but whilst you may possibly see most of a week cloudy and rainy, that’s relatively unusual.

IN GENERAL - October’s climate is another step down from September, with only sea temperatures holding up.  And once again, this deterioration occurs during the month, so whether you’re going during the first or last week makes quite a difference.  Having said that, and given that the tourist season for Brits only covers the first week of the month, you’ll be fairly unluck to have a fully ‘bad week’, and extremely unlucky indeed to have a ‘bad fortnight’ if you go for the last week in September/first week in October.

Skiathos in November and December

The climate changes from autumnal to ‘mild-winter’ over these two months.

The average minimum temperatures are 13°C in November and 9°C in December, the average maximums are 17°C in November and 13°C in December, with the mean averages being 15.3°C in November and 11°C in December.  Those are averages – the warmest day of the month can regularly be 23°C in November and 19°C in December, whilst the warmest recorded in the period was 27°C in November and 23°C in December. The coldest nights are usually around 8°C in November and 3°C in December, though it can occasionally be as low as 4°C in November and just 1°C in December; a ‘big coat’ is mandatory.  Sea temperatures hold up fairly well in November at 18.5°C, which would be doable for some were it not for the cold air once you left the water.  In December this falls further to 15.5°C, which is a non-starter for most.  It has been known to snow, and snow quite heavily in December.

The rainfall average for November is 65mm distributed over 10 days per month, and 95mm over 12 days in December.  Sunshine hours average is around 5.5 hours per day in November and 3.5 in December.  On average, it’s sunny for 55% of daylight hours in November, but just 37% in December.  If you visit for a fortnight, you’re almost certain to see some rain, and there’s a reasonable chance the rain could last for a significant portion of your visit.

IN GENERAL - November and December are continuing steps down from October.  You can visit Skiathos at this time of year, but it won’t be for the weather or the swimming